Over breakfast yesterday, we were talking about politics, and speculating about what was going to happen on either side. Here’s my take on the Republicans: John McCain is going to be the GOP nominee. Then I think he’ll get his butt kicked by the eventual Democratic nominee.
I don’t believe that Rudy Giuliani can survive the primaries; he’s coasting on name recognition, and people aren’t yet paying attention to how personally loathsome he is. But it’s kind of like dating: common advice to women is “If you want to know how he’ll treat you in the long run, watch how he treats waitresses (or his mother).” Rudy is a ruthless egomaniac who discards people like garbage if they get in his way. He publicly humiliated his wife and kids so he could dump the wife and take up with another woman. If he treats his own family this way, the people he’s supposed to love and protect the most, why expect him to act any differently in other cases? He’s arrogant, vindictive and has a raging temper. Have you noticed that so far his handlers haven’t put him into situations where he has to deal with common citizens in an unscripted fashion? There’s a reason for that.
Rudy’s personal judgement is seriously flawed; he hung out with Bernie Kerik for years after Kerik was clearly shown to be crooked. He placed the NYC crisis command center in the World Trade Center, which had already been attacked once. And of course, Rudy’s got lots of policy positions that are anathema to the conservative voters that make up the GOP primary electorate. Eventually, they will reject him. See this post over on Tapped for more.
Mitt Romney is not playing well. Sure, he’s raised lots of money, but his poll numbers suck and aren’t getting any better. Religious right-wingers don’t trust him, no matter how much pandering he does. They don’t like his flip-flopping on issues, and they don’t like that he’s a Mormon. He’s a little creepy, too; he has that RoboCandidate vibe. He’ll hang in there for quite a while, but he won’t gain the traction he needs to win.
The rest of them are generally psycho-conservatives, and even if they could get the nomination, would lead the GOP to an Electoral College blowout by the Dems.
So that leaves us with McCain. Republicans are royalists at heart, and they always nominate the guy whose turn it is. McCain’s having a rough patch now, but as people and donors get a clearer view of Rudy and Mitt’s flaws, they’ll anoint McCain.
Think I’m wrong? Tell me about it in the comments.